Modeling and Climate Change
Assessing environmental drivers of current and future risk in NC waters: algal bloom dynamics and toxin distribution.
Coastal waters like North Carolina’s Pamlico-Albemarle Sound System are vital ecosystems that support marine life, fishing industries, and recreation. These valuable areas face growing threats from harmful algal blooms, which produce toxins that can contaminate seafood, damage ecosystems, and pose serious health risks to people living, working, and vacationing near them. This project aims to develop advanced tools to predict when and where these toxins are likely to occur, using cutting-edge models that combine environmental data, satellite imagery, and climate projections. By understanding how factors like changing rainfall, rising sea levels, and urban development affect these blooms, the project will help communities protect public health, manage coastal resources, and adapt to future environmental changes.
Predicting Cyanotoxins in Coastal Waters and Seafood
The first goal of this project is to create models that predict harmful algal toxins, like microcystins that are potent liver toxins, possible human carcinogens, and often deadly for pets, in coastal waters and seafood, particularly crabs and oysters. These toxins pose risks to human health, but predicting where and when they will occur and how quickly they concentrate in aquatic life has been difficult due to the complex interactions of environmental factors like salinity, temperature, and nutrient levels. By developing a flexible, data-driven modeling approach, the project will help researchers and policymakers better understand toxin dynamics, enabling communities to prepare for and mitigate health risks. This will benefit seafood safety, recreational water users, and local economies that depend on coastal resources.
Understanding System-Wide Risks and Transport of Toxins
The second goal focuses on understanding how toxins and algal blooms spread across a large and complex coastal system like North Carolina’s estuaries. Using advanced models and satellite data, the project will track how environmental conditions like salinity and nutrient levels change over time and space. This will help identify whether toxins are being transported from freshwater sources or are forming locally in estuarine waters. These insights will enable more targeted management strategies, ensuring that resources are allocated where they are most needed to protect ecosystems and public health.
Assessing Future Risks from Climate and Land-Use Changes
The third goal looks ahead to how climate change and urban development might impact toxin risks in the future. Rising temperatures, changes in rainfall, and sea level rise are expected to alter coastal environments, potentially making some areas more vulnerable to harmful algal blooms. By modeling these changes, the project will predict how risks will evolve over the next several decades. This information will help decision-makers plan for the future, protecting communities, preserving marine life, and ensuring sustainable use of coastal waters in the face of environmental change.
